Warning: I am not trying to time the market. I try to present unbiased facts with my own personal assessment of the risk/reward equation for equities over the “foreseeable” future. I make extensive use of the Rule of 20 valuation method and only use trailing earnings.
This is a game of probabilities. I present the odds and announce my hand. You make your own calls based on your own hand and your personal aversion to risk.
This track record highlights my major write ups and their conclusions. The associated report is more important than the actual call since it explains the context and the reasoning behind the conclusions.
In a nutshell, I have been positive on equities since early 2009 with a number of periods of caution over the years. My first below-neutral rating since this blog was launched in Jan. 3 , 2009 was on Feb. 19, 2015 (Deflating Equities).